城镇化对水资源利用的非线性影响——基于面板平滑转换回归模型研究

Study on the Nonlinear Influence of Urbanization on Water Resources Utilization: Based on PSTR Model

文章运用PSTR模型和城市动态面板数据,实证发现中国城镇化对水资源利用总量的影响是非线性的,该影响依赖于各转换变量,且均存在门槛效应。其中,对于经济发展水平较高城市与较低城市,城镇化对水资源利用总量的提高作用均较小,对于中等经济发展水平城市,城镇化对水资源利用总量的提高作用较大。该结论也适用于对外贸易和外资两个转换变量;其他转换变量则将各城市分为高低两个体制,其中产业结构水平较高的城市的城镇化降低了水资源利用总量,产业结构水平较低的城市城镇化提高了水资源利用总量;技术进步、要素集聚程度和人力资本水平越高的城市,城镇化对水资源利用总量的降低作用越大;要素市场扭曲程度越高的城市,城镇化对水资源利用总量的提高作用越大。

Based on the urban dynamic panel data, the paper uses the PSTR model empirical study andfinds that the urbanization has obvious nonlinear effect on water resources utilization. The effects depend on thetransformation variables with threshold effects. The water resources utilization effect is relatively weak for thecities with higher and lower economic development level, while strong for those with middle economic develop￣ment level. This conclusion also applies to foreign trade and foreign capital. Other conversion variables divideprovinces into two systems, in which the total water resources utilization is decreased in cities of high industrialstructure level, increased in cities of low industrial structure level. And the reduction effects of water resourcesutilization fby urbanization are greater in the cities with higher level of technological progress, factors agglomeration degree and human capital, while the improve effects of water resources utilization for the urbanization isgreater in cities with higher factor market distortion.