用广义离散傅立叶变换解析国际油价(WTI)曲线以探讨国际油价的周期性

Analysis of International Oil Price Curve(WTI)by Generalized Discrete Fourier Transform to Explore the Cyclical Nature of International Oil Prices

国际油价是否存在周期性,其周期参数为何值的问题已逐渐成为近年国内外国际油价研究的新热点。利用广义离散傅立叶变换解析,处理1988—2017年的国际油价(WTI)曲线,探讨国际油价(WTI)的周期性参数。所获参数利用英国《经济学人》发表的相关曲线进行验证。研究表明,处理后的国际油价(WTI)曲线(1988—2017年)的变化周期为6~8年。国际上较大的政治、军事及经济事件,对于WTI国际油价指数曲线的振幅有影响,但对于曲线变化的周期基本无影响。从WTI国际油价指数曲线的发展来看,2009—2016年正好完成一个国际油价上涨与回落的周期,故从2016年底开始,油价曲线应执行另一个新的"上涨与回落"周期。

In recent years,whether the international oil price has periodic rules and what are the periodic parameters have become the new hotspot in the international oil price research circle both at home and abroad. The authors use the general-ized discrete Fourier transform to analyze the international oil price（WTI）curve from 1988 to 2017 and discuss the periodic parameters of international oil price（WTI）. The parameters obtained used relevant curves published in the Economist. The study shows that the change period of international oil price of the processed WTI curve（1988-2017）is 6 to 8 years. Also,large political,military and economic events in the world have an impact on the amplitude of the WTI international oil price curve,but have no effect on the cycle of the curve. From the perspective of the development of the WTI,it is necessary to complete an international oil price rise and fall cycle from 2009 to 2016. Therefore,from the end of 2016,the oil price curve should carry out another new “up and down” cycle.