人民币汇率对我国旅游外汇收入的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Impact on Chinese Tourism Foreign Exchange Earnings Based on VAR Model

在我国入境旅游迅速发展的背景下,人民币汇率对我国旅游外汇收入的影响值得深入研究.构建旅游外汇收入和人民币汇率的VAR模型,并通过误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解动态分析人民币汇率对我国旅游外汇收入的影响.结果表明:旅游外汇收入和人民币兑美元汇率具有负相关关系;一定时期的人民币兑美元汇率是引起旅游外汇收入变化的Granger原因;人民币贬值,短期内会促使旅游外汇收入上升但其贡献越来越小,从中长期来看,人民币持续贬值使旅游外汇收入不断减少且其贡献作用会越来越大.

Under the background of rapid development of inbound tourism in China, the impact of RMB ex-change rate on Chinese tourism foreign exchange earningsneeds to bedeeply studied. This paper constructs the VARmodel of tourism foreign exchange income and RMB exchange rate, and analyzesthe impact of RMB exchange rate onChinesetourism foreign exchange earnings through the error correction model, impulse response function and vari-ance decomposition of forecast error. The results show thatthe tourist foreign exchange income and exchange rate ofRMB against the U.S. dollar have negative correlation; the RMB exchange rate against the dollar ina certain periodof timeis the Granger cause of the change of tourism foreign exchange earnings; the devaluation of the RMB promotestourism foreign exchange income but its contribution issmaller and smallerin the short term. However, in the longterm, the continued depreciation of the RMB will make tourism foreign exchange income decline, and its contributionwill be bigger and bigger.