后乌克兰危机背景下的北极国际合作:以“复合相互依赖”为视角

ARCTIC COOPERATION AFTER THE UKRAINE CRISIS: PERSPECTIVE OF COMPLEX INTERDEPENDENCE

对于后危机时期对立国家间在特定领域的合作关系的延续,"复合相互依赖"模式提供了有力的理论解释力。正如乌克兰危机陷入僵局后,西方国家对俄罗斯采取经济制裁,与俄罗斯的政治和军事关系也全面破裂;然而,俄罗斯与西方国家的合作关系却并未完全中断,至少在北极地区的搜救、渔业、航运、北极理事会等功能性领域的合作依然继续,使得北极国际合作呈现出断裂性和连续性的动态组合。现阶段的北极地区关系反映了一个事先存在的"复合相互依赖"状态,通过联系战略、议程设置和国际机制等政治进程,避免国家间关系的全面破裂并抑制危机的外溢,同时为冲突各方保有在有限领域的沟通渠道,推动信任关系的重塑。

The continuation of interstate cooperative ties between conflicting parties in a post-crisis era can be explained definitively by the concept of “complex interdependence”. As the Ukraine crisis drags on and ac-celerates further, cooperation between Russia and Western countries has not ended altogether. In the Arctic at least, cooperation in such functional domains as search and rescue, fishing, and navigation as well as in the Arctic Council is barely or only slightly affected. This portrays interstate cooperation in the Arctic as a dy-namic combination of rupture and continuation. The ongoing political dynamics in the Arctic reflect how a pre-existing situation of complex interdependence can prevent the entire breakdown of interstate relations. It can also avert escalation of a crisis through the approaches of a linkage strategy, agenda setting, and interna-tional regimes. At the same time, pre-existing complex interdependence can keep open channels of commu-nication between the conflicting parties and further facilitate the process of re-building confidence.