关于蛋料比价关系研究

An empirical analysis of the relationship about Egg price ratio

我国是鸡蛋生产与消费大国,鸡蛋与饲料比价变化对蛋鸡养殖户经营活动有很大影响。因此,研究分析蛋料比价具有重要的现实意义。本文基于VAR模型建立协整方程,并运用Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解方法找出蛋鸡养殖成本主要影响因素,并估算蛋鸡养殖盈亏平衡点。综合得出蛋料比价受自身前期价格影响最大;方差分解蛋料比价、豆粕、玉米和蛋鸡配比饲料所贡献依次减小,分别为73%、19%、7%、1%,蛋料比价至少需要4个月恢复平稳;结合2017年玉米、豆粕价格持续走低并参照构建盈亏平衡曲线预测2017年三、四季度鸡蛋价格将上涨,且蛋鸡养殖户实现盈利。

China is a large country of egg production and consumption, and the change in price of eggs and feed has a great influence on the operation of egg chicken farmers. There- fore, it is of important practical significance to study and analyze the egg price ratio. This paper based on the VAR model to establish the cointegration equation, using Johansen cointegration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method to find the main factors that influence the cost of laying hens breeding, and estimate laying hens breeding break-even point, It is concluded that the price of the egg is the most affected by the initial price. The contribution of variance decomposition of egg price ratio, soya bean meal, corn and Layer pro- portioning feed was reduced in the order of 73%,19%,7%,1%, and the price of egg was stable for at least four months. Combined with the price of corn and soya bean meal in 2017and reference to the construction break-even curve, the price of eggs will rise in three and fourth ouarter of 2017 ,and the egg chicken farmers will be profitable.