当前我国鸡蛋价格趋势的分析及预测

Analysis and Forecast of Egg Price in China

2016年秋季以来,我国鸡蛋价格持续走低,引起社会的广泛关注,也对蛋鸡养殖户及相关企业造成一定影响。本文在对我国鸡蛋市场的供需形势分析的基础上,使用HP滤波分析以及BP分析法,对我国2000年以来鸡蛋价格序列进行分解,得到我国鸡蛋价格的长期趋势和短期波动特征,并逐周期进行分析。同时,利用自回归移动平均模型对短期内鸡蛋月度价格进行预测,结果显示:2017年下半年至2018年底,我国鸡蛋价格将出现上升-回落-上升的周期波动趋势。

Egg, as a kind of daily food, is popular and so-called ＂ideal nutrition bank＂ because of its nutritional value. Since 201？,the price of egg goes down obviously in 2017. This price decline is mainly caused by：the unbalance of supply and demand, and the impact of avian influenza epidemics, etc. On the one hand, low price of corn and soybean meal reduce feed cost. Meanwhile farmers＇ enthusiasm is high, and laying hens breeding stock increases, which make the supply of egg be adequate and drop the price of egg down. On the other hand, affected by avian influenza, the demand of egg is falling. The decrease in price of egg in 2017 has drawn attention of laying hens breeding farmers, laying hens and egg production enterprise, as well as related scholars. We use monthly price data of egg since 2000 in this paper to analysis long-term trend and short-term fluctuation in the price of egg, as well as the characteristics and reasons of long-term trend and short-term fluctuation. At the same time, we use auto-re- gressive moving average model to forecast monthly price of egg in the future as of the end of 2018. It is shown in our findings that the price of egg will steadily going up in the near future. Moreover, some conclusions and policy suggestions are also given based on our findings.