北京市某区PM_(2.5)与居民冠心病死亡关系研究

Relationship between fine particulate matter and coronary heart disease death in one district of Beijing

目的探讨北京市某区细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))污染对居民冠心病死亡造成的影响。方法采用R 3.0.1软件建立分布滞后非线性模型,在控制了长期趋势、星期几效应、气象因素等混杂因素的影响后,分析2013年1月1日-2016年12月31日北京市某区PM_(2.5)与居民冠心病死亡之间的关系。结果单污染物模型中,PM_(2.5)(lag1)对居民冠心病死亡的影响具有统计学意义,大气中PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m^3,居民冠心病死亡平均增加0.21%(95%CI:0.02%-0.41%)。双污染物模型中,引入SO_2后,PM_(2.5)对居民冠心病死亡的影响无统计学意义(P>0.05);分别引入NO_2和O_3后,对冠心病死亡的影响均在滞后第1天(lag1)具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论北京市某区PM_(2.5)污染与居民冠心病死亡之间存在正相关关系,PM_(2.5)对居民冠心病死亡的影响与其他大气污染物之间存在协同作用。

Objective Explore the relationship between fine particulate matter （ PM2.5） an d coronary heart disease death in one district of Beijing. Methods Distributed lag non-linear models （ DLNM ） wa s used to examine the exposure- response relationship between PM2.5 and coronary heart disease death under controlling long-term trends, the “day of the week” effect and meterological factors. Results Per 10 （μg/m^3 increase in PM2.5w a s associated with 0.21% （95% C70. 02% - 0. 41% ） increase in coronary heart disease death at lagl in single-pollutant model. The estimated effects of PM2.5 on coronary heart disease remained statistically significant at lagl when N02and 03 was respectively included in the model（P 〈0. 05） . There was no significant associations between PM2.5 and coronary heart disease death at all lag structures （ P 〉0.05） w h e n SO2 wa s included in the model. Conclusion PM2.5 was positively associated with the daily mortalities of coronary heart disease in one district of Beijing.