电力消费与产业结构高级化关系实证分析——基于省级面板数据

Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Electricity Consumption and Industrial Structure:Based on the Provincial Panel Data

电力消费与产业结构高级化反映着经济发展水平.对全国电力消费、第二产业占比、第三产业占比进行统计分析表明,2006—2015年我国产业结构类型成功由二三一转变为三二一,产业结构进入更高级、更高层次阶段,人均电力消费呈现逐年增长态势,对经济社会发展的支撑作用不断增强.因此,选取全国30个省级面板数据建立产业结构高级化与电力消费量、城镇化、财政支出、固定资产投资的固定效应模型,并对样本数据进行固定效应回归、分位数回归和对结果稳定性进行半参数模型回归检验,以对我国电力消费与产业结构高级化关系进行实证分析.结果发现电力消费增长对产业结构升级起着抑制作用,并提出相关建议.

The high level of electricity consumption and industrial structure reflect the level of economic develop-ment. On the analyses of the country s electricity c o nsumption, secondary industry proportion, tertiary industry pro-portion ,it holds that the industrial structure type changed from secondary industry - tertiary industry - agriculture industry to tertiary industry - secondary industry - agriculture industry during 2005 -2015 in C h i n a,and the per capita electricity consumption increases year by year. We selected 30 provincial panel data to establish a fixed- effect model on the optimization of the industrial structure and electricity consumption , urbanization , fiscal expendi-ture, investment in the fixed assets, and fixed effects regression, quantile regression and semiparametric m o d e l re-gression test are conducted on the sampled data. T h e results sh o w that the increasing consumption of electricity plays an inhibitory role in the upgrading of industrial structure and puts forward relevant Suggestions.