新型城镇化对产业升级的影响效应分析

Analysis of Influential Effect towards Upgrading of Industrial Structure from New-type Urbanization

我国新型城镇化已成为经济新常态下产业升级的新思路,新型城镇化进程产生的诸多绩效是产业升级的强大动力。本文系统阐述了新型城镇化影响产业升级的作用机理,并基于数据可得性以带状选取东中西部各3个省份,每个省选取3个中大型地级市2004~2015年的面板数据作为研究样本,将新型城镇化和产业升级之间关系图和格兰杰因果检验结合,从时间和空间角度分析新型城镇化对产业升级的影响。结论表明:在时间上,2005~2011年,两者有负相关关系,2011~2015年,两者有正相关关系;在空间上,东部新型城镇化对产业升级有正向影响,中西部前者对后者无正向影响。根据实证结果和新型城镇化对产业升级的影响在时间和空间上存在差异的原因进而提出相关对策建议。

China＇s New-type urbanization has become a new idea of i ndustrial upgrading under the new economic conditions. Many of the performances produced by the new urbanization process are a powerful driving force for industrial upgrading. This paper systematically expounds the mechanism of the impact of the New-type urbanization on the industrial upgrading,and selects the three provinces in the eastern,central and western regions based on the availability of data,each province selects three medium and large prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2015 panel data as a study sample,the relationship between the new urbanization and the industrial upgrading and the Granger causality test is combined to analyze the impact of the new urbanization on the industrial upgrading from the time and space. The results show that there is a negative correlation between 2005 and 2011,and there is a positive correlation between the two in 2005 and 2015. In the space,the new urbanization in the east has a positive effect on the industrial upgrading. There is no positive effect on the latter. According to the empirical results and the impact of the new urbanization on the industrial upgrading in time and space differences and then put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions.