未来气候变化情景下中国北方农牧交错带脆弱性评估

Analysis of Vulnerable Characteristics in Chinese Northern Farming-Pastoral Region Based on Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment

基于中国地面降水和气温0.5°×0.5°格点数据集以及区域协同降尺度试验东亚地区项目组RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来气候预估数据,对中国北方农牧交错带1980—2100年的气候脆弱性进行模拟和分析。结果表明,北方农牧交错带气候脆弱性在未来的100年中整体上呈现增大的趋势,特别是2050年后,增大速度进一步加剧,到21世纪末,几乎整个北方农牧交错带都表现出明显脆弱性。从宁夏中卫到呼和浩特北部一带,脆弱性形势较为严峻,而大兴安岭北部地区脆弱性程度较低。

Based on the grid data set of temperature and precipitation of China（0.5°×0.5°） and the output of coordinated regional downscaling experiment（CORDEX） East Asia, including the climate prediction based on RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, the authors simulate and analyze vulnerability in Chinese northern farming-pastoral region from 1980 to 2100 with temperature, precipitation and maximum near-surface wind speed. The results show that the ecologically vulnerability in Chinese northern farming-pastoral region increases during 2006-2100, especially after 2050, the increase speed rises rapidly. By the end of 21 st century, almost all the Chinese northern farmingpastoral region shows at least obvious vulnerability. Said on the space, the vulnerability is severe from Zhongwei to north of Hohhot, however, it＇s better in north Great Khingan.