应急决策模式:基于SROP的分析框架

Emergency Decision Mode: Based on Analysis Framework of SROP

应急决策是一种基于情境依赖和事态研判的非程序化实时决策,对于有效控制事态发展、传播及危害范围至关重要,因此也是应急管理的核心。本文运用SROP构建了包括基于个人视角的应急决策事理分析、基于个人视角的应急决策人理分析、基于组织视角的应急决策事理分析和基于组织视角的应急决策人理分析的应急决策模式。最后,验证了基于SROP的应急决策分析模式的有效性。

Emergency decision is a non-procedural and real-time decision-making, which is based on contextual dependence and judging state of affairs. It＇ s essential for the effective control of developments, spread and hazard ranges. Therefore, it＇ s also the core of emergency management. On the basis of elaborating the connotation of SROP matrix, this paper analyzes the applicability of SROP analysis tool to emergency decision- making by analyzing the inherent characteristics of emergency decision-making. It also constructs an emergency decision mode which includes four types of emergency-making analyses： Shili analysis based on personal perspective, Renli analysis based on personal perspective, Shili analysis based on organizational perspective and Renli analysis based on organizational perspective. Finally, the validity of the analysis mode of emergency decision based on SROP is tested by correlation analysis. The emergency decision-making model based on SROP takes full account of the inherent characteristics of many subjects in the decision-making process, and provides a systematic analysis method for emergency decision-making.