自由贸易协定能有效缓解金融危机吗?——基于倾向得分匹配模型的实证检验

Can Free Trade Agreement Effectively Ease the Financial Crisis?——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Propensity Score Matching Model

利用中国与212个国家(地区)的双边贸易数据,在经典截面引力模型基础上,基于拟自然实验思想,运用匹配模型探讨自由贸易协定签订对于2008年世界金融危机前后中国双边贸易的促进作用。研究表明:传统模型对自贸协定贸易效应存在高估的问题。此外,在全球经济形势较好的年份,自由贸易协定的促进效应较小,随着世界金融危机的爆发,自贸协定的贸易促进效果显著增强。因此,在当前经济形势下,中国应当加快自由贸易协定的谈判进程,以积极应对各国不断抬头的贸易保护主义,保证我国出口贸易的平稳增长。

Stating from the gravity model and the principles of quasi natural experiment, this paper discusses the promoting effect of free trade agreements on China＇ s bilateral trade before and after the global financial crisis in 2008, using matching model and data of bilateral trade between China and 212 countries and regions. The results show that the gravity model overestimates the trade effects of the FTA. In addition, the promoting effect of the FTA is inconsiderable when the world market enjoys a good economic situation. However, the effect is obviously strengthened when the financial crisis breaks out. In the current economic situation, China should quicken its pace in negotiating more free trade agreements so as to ensure the steady growth of China＇ s export against the rise of trade protectionism in other countries.