中国省域交通运输经济发展与碳排放的联合动态性分析

Co-Evolution Dynamic Analysis of Transportation Economy Development and Carbon Emission in China's Provinces

基于2006—2015年交通运输及其碳排放数据,文章采用STIRPAT模型探究交通运输经济发展水平对碳排放的影响程度,并在交通运输经济发展水平和碳排放状态划分的基础上,采用马尔科夫链分析中国30个省市区交通运输经济发展水平—碳排放状态的动态转移规律。结果表明:(1)在低发展、中发达和高发达三种发展水平下,其对碳排放的影响程度分别为1.0108、0.9749和0.9997,存在明显的差异性;(2)2006—2015年,低发展和中发达状态普遍呈现转移态势,高发达状态稳定性较大;(3)交通运输经济发展过程中普遍以碳排放的增加为代价,即交通运输碳排放越大,其转移到高发达水平的概率越大。

The influence level of transportation development on carbon emission was studied by STIRPAT model on the basis of data of transportation and carbon emission in 2006-2015 years. Based on the state di- vision of the economic development level of transportation and carbon emission, the Markov chain was used to analyze the dynamic transfer rules of the state of transportation development and carbon emission in Chi- na＇s 30 provinces. The results show that.. （1） In the three levels of low development, middle developed and developed, its impact on the degree of carbon emissions are 1. 0108, 0. 9749 and 0. 9997, existing obvi- ous differences~ （2） During 2006-2015 years, the state of low development and middle developed generally show a transfer situation, while the state of developed and high emissions presents the high stability. （3） The development of transport economy increase in the cost of carbon emissions generally. In other words, the higher the carbon emission, the higher the probability of its transferring to the high level of development.