延迟退休与养老保险制度并轨的财政及就业效应

Policy Effect of Delayed Retirement and Incorporation:Employment and Pension Deficits

本文运用养老金缺口度量模型对比分析了延迟退休和养老保险制度并轨的政策效果与就业效应,并运用中国1997-2015年间的数据对两种养老改革的效果作了模拟分析。研究表明,延迟退休无法从根源上解决养老金亏空问题,其不但会降低现存工作代在退休后的养老待遇,还会加重延迟退休到期以后若干新生代的养老负担;对新增劳动力也会产生就业挤出效应,不利于缓解劳动力市场供过于求的结构性矛盾,并增加宏观经济的不确定性。而并轨养老保险制度的效果则要好得多,无论是平衡养老财政预算,还是优化劳动力资源配置,都具有明显优势。当前优先考虑养老保险制度并轨,择期推进延迟退休的改革策略,比较切合中国国情。具体改革措施可依据不同群体的年龄结构、不同单位的市场化程度以及不同地区的经济状况相机抉择。

This paper employed a mathematical model to compare the policy effect and employment effect between delayed retirement and incorporation,and gave a simulation analysis towards these two strategies with Chinese data. The results indicate that,delayed retirement cannot thoroughly solve the pension deficits,it not only reduces the pension benefits for retiree,but also increases the pension burdens on the new generation workers. So,it is not a good choice to improve the inter-generational equity. Furthermore,the strategy of delayed retirement would reduce the employment opportunities,which may inhibit the decrease the risk of unemployment and the uncertainty of macro-economy. Compared with delayed retirement,incorporation can solve the problem of pension deficits quickly,in addition,it also narrows the gap between inside and outside of system. So,delayed retirement is conductive to improve the intra-generational and inter-generational equity. In addition,incorporation also can lessen the structural supply-demand contradiction of labor market and thus contributes to the enhancing the efficiency of labor source allocation and macro-economy. Therefore,incorporation is the best choice to pension reform. As for strategy selection, the age structures, marketization degree and level of economic of development should be considered.