人民币国际化与最优货币政策——基于汇率传递视角的分析

RMB Internationalization and the Optimal Monetary Policy:From the Perspective of Exchange Rate Pass-Through

本文在人民币国际化视野下,将汇率传递、利率规则和生产冲击之间相互影响的内在机制联系起来,拓展了标准的货币政策模型,在开放经济环境中重点分析了由人民币国际化所产生的一国汇率传递程度上升对货币政策传导机制和社会福利的影响。研究表明随着人民币国际化推进,本国汇率传递程度上升将直接影响两国的最优货币政策,并能同时提高本国与外国的福利水平。纳什均衡时,人民币国际化将加剧两国的汇率波动幅度;但是在合作均衡下,汇率波动随着汇率传递程度增加呈现出先增加后减小的变化趋势。

This paper combines the internal mechanism of interaction among exchange rate passthrough,interest rate rule and production shocks,and expands the monetary policy model in an open economy. This paper analyzes the influence on monetary policy transmission mechanism and social welfare led by the increasing degree of exchange rate pass-through due to RMB internationalization. The results show that as the RMB internationalizes deeply,the increasing exchange rate pass-through directly affects the optimal monetary policy of the two countries and increases the welfare level of both counties. The RMB internationalization will intensify the exchange rate fluctuation in Nash equilibrium,while the degree of exchange rate fluctuation goes up at first and then falls down as the degree of pass-through increases in international policy cooperation equilibrium.