不同计划生育政策下的人口结构预测——基于多胎次两区域人口发展模型

Population Structure Prediction under Different Family Planning Policies——Based on Multiple Birth-Two Regional Population Development Model

本文继承两区域人口发展模型的人口学仿真思想,鉴于当前计划生育政策宽松性的讨论和各胎次出生性别比的差异,将依赖于妇女生理和社会习俗的相对固定因素和依赖于未来计划生育政策的变动因素分离开来,建立了多胎次两区域人口发模型,为不同计划生育政策下的人口结构预测提供了一种方法。首先,从人口学意义和历史数据同时说明了本文定义的标准条件生育模式具有相对稳定性,其次利用调研的结果,确定参数。最后,通过本模型系统对几种计划生育政策下的人口结构进行了预测,结果显示:放开二胎政策,甚至完全放开计划生育政策对乡镇地区的影响很小,仅对于城市地区有一定的作用,总体来说,即使全面放开计划生育政策,未来长期总抚养比依然呈现逐渐递增态势。

This paper inheriting the idea of demographic simulation in two regional population development model, established a multiple birth-two regional population development model by separating the policy effect from the relatively fixed effect of women＇s physiological characteristics and social customs, providing a population prediction method under different family planning policies. Using data from the 5th and 6th census and child-bearing willingness survey, our model indicates that multiple birth policy only influences the population structure in urban area, while having little effect on rural area. The result holds even when the family limitation is removed, to conclude, future dependency ratio will still present a trend of increase in long-term.