中国典型区域含电力消费的碳排放驱动因素分解

Studying on driving factors of carbon emission containing power consumption in typical provinces of China

碳排放驱动因素分解是实现碳减排路径的重要工具,目前碳排放驱动因素分解研究主要针对直接碳排放,忽略了区域间碳转移问题,尤其是电力消费引起的碳排放转移。为保障区域碳排放责任公平,促进各区域均衡发展,构建了一种面向区域公平发展的混合碳排放估算方法,并以北京市、广东省、山西省、河南省为典型案例,分别测算了4区域1995—2013年包含电力消费的碳排放。在此基础上,运用对数平均分解指数(LMDI)模型分析了经济发展水平、人口规模、能源效率、能源结构及电力结构对各省市碳排放的贡献。结果表明,经济发展水平与能源效率分别是各区域碳排放增长的最大拉动因素及最大抑制因素,其余因素影响并不明显,且区域不同因素的影响存在一定差异。

Decomposition approaches for driving factors of carbon emissions were key tools to seek path of carbon reduction. At present,most of studies had focused on the direct carbon emissions,ignoring interregional transfer of carbon,especially carbon emissions caused by the transfer of power. To ensure regional carbon emissions responsibility fair and promote the balanced development of each region, this paper constructed an improved carbon emissions measurement model based on fair development of regions. With this model, this paper measured and calculated the carbon emissions contained power consumption of four typical provinces （Beijing, Guangdong, Shanxi and Henan） from 1995 to 2013. Then this paper analyzed the contribution of factors like economy development, population scale, energy efficiency,energy structure and power structure to carbon emissions using logarithmic mean divisia index （LMDI） model. Results of this study showed that economy development was the biggest pull factor to the regional carbon emissions growth,and energy efficiency was the biggest inhibitor. The remaining factors were not obvious, and the influence of each factors varied in different regions.