人口转型与消费结构变迁研究

Demographic Transition and Consumption Structure Change

当下的中国正在与自己赛跑,一方面要解决人口老龄化带来的负面影响,一方面要拉动内需寻找新的经济增长点,因而探索人口转型与消费结构变迁的问题具有重要的研究意义。该文利用1995-2015年的分五岁组的人口年龄结构与消费结构数据,采用邓式灰色关联度方法测度了近20年来的人口结构与消费结构之间的动态关系,发现了2001年以后我国的消费结构与人口结构匹配失衡,居住支出占比的大幅提升不利于消费结构的优化升级,我国的消费行为是以家庭效用最大化为目的,城乡之间的消费行为差异明显等问题。提出的对策建议是:要推进供给侧结构性改革,释放消费者的有效需求;完善房地产租赁市场,降低居住支出对其他消费的挤压效应;完善社会保障制度,释放劳动年龄段人口的消费需求以及树立科学合理的消费观念,引导农村消费行为的转变。

The China is now racing with itself, we need to solve the negative impact of population aging and also need to find new economic growth point by stimulate domestic demand. So it is important significance of exploring the demographic transition and consumption structure changes. This paper based on the data of age structure and consumption structure of the 5-year- old group from 1995 to 2015, it uses the Deng-style gray relational method to measure the dynamic relationship between population structure and consumption structure in the past 20 years. We found that China＇s consumption structure and population structure match imbalance, living expenses accounted for a substantial increase is not conducive to the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure, Chings consumer behavior is to maximize family utility, and the consumption behavior of urban and rural have obvious differences. At last, this paper suggest to improve the reform of supply-side industrial structure for releasing the effective demand, to complete the real market for reducing the living expenses, to perfect the social security system for releasing the labor＇s consumption demand and to establish the right concept in consumption for guiding the rural to transform their consumption behavior.