中国全要素生产率增长潜力分析——从历史和改革的视角

Prospect of the China's Potential Total Factor Productivity——A Perspective of History and Institutional Reform

本文从制度性改革的角度对未来中国全要素生产率(TFP)增长的潜力和驱动因素进行了分析。首先对改革开放以来快速增长的TFP、驱动因素以及对经济增长的贡献度进行了回顾,指出过去的驱动因素已经减弱,甚至消失,进一步的制度改革将成为促进TFP增长的新动力。本文还对促进TFP增长的改革和政策措施进行了综述,并对政策实施过程中的风险和不确定性进行了分析。最后,将中国的TFP发展水平与美国、日本和韩国进行了比较,指出目前中国TFP还处于较低水平,未来还有很大的提升空间。同时,中国较高的R&D投入以及不断提高的人力资本将为TFP的增长提供坚实的基础。

This paper aims at making prospect of China＇s potential Total Factor Productivity （TFP） from the perspective of history and institutional reform. It first reviewed the development of China＇s TFP, its driving force, and the contribution to the economic growth in the last decades. And then it came to the conclusion that the previous drivers have decreased or faded. It analyzed the existing institution- al barriers and imperfectness which hindered the TFP growth, and indicated that further institutional reform would provide new driv- ers. The policies and strategies carried out for fostering the TFP growth were documented. The challenges and uncertainty that the polices faced were discussed. By means of comparing the development of China＇s TFP with that of Japan and South Korea, we reach conclusion that China＇s TFP is still at low level, and has big potential to growth. The strengthening investment in R＆D and human capital will pro- vide solid foundation for China＇s TFP growth.