基于灰色生灭过程的可修部件备件需求预测模型

Spare parts demand forecasting model of repairable components based on gray birth and death process

可修部件的失效率和修复率在服役周期内呈现不确定性,基于确定型失效率和修复率建模的生灭过程,在解决可修部件备件预测问题存在一定局限。以区间灰数表征可修部件的失效率与修复率,构建灰色状态转移矩阵,建立基于灰色生灭过程可修部件备件需求预测模型,研究了基于灰色生灭过程的无记忆性和预测模型稳态解的存在条件,一定程度上揭示了失效率和修复率不确定背景下的可修系统备件需求规律。实际案例研究验证了模型的有效性和实用性。

During the life cycle,the failure rate and repairable rate of repairable parts show uncertain characteristics.The birth and death process based on the determined failure rate and repair rate may not meet the demand forecasting of spare parts.By using interval gray numbers to represent the failure rate and repair rate of repairable parts,the gray state transition matrix is constructed.The spare parts demand forecasting model of repairable components based on gray birth and death process is built.The memoryless and existence conditions of steady solution of the process based on the gray birth and death process are studied.To some extent,the spare parts demand law with the uncertain information of the failure rate and the repair rate is revealed.The practical case study verifies the validity and practicability of the model.