基于熵权模糊综合评价法偏远地区PPP风险分析

Study on remote areas PPP assessment based on entropy weight and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

结合偏远地区PPP模式投资大、收益慢、风险因素多等特点,多方面考虑PPP项目风险是投资成功的关键,因此需要加强对PPP模式的风险管理。应用熵权法和模糊综合评价法的基本原理来对PPP模式中存在的风险进行分析。首先,根据参考文献和PPP项目实际,建立风险评价指标体系;然后,运用熵权法,确定各指标的权重;再次,根据模糊综合评价法,确立风险等级;最后,采用案例进行验证,得出计算结果与现场实际得出结论相一致,印证了以熵权法与模糊综合评价法相结合的风险分析方法具有可行性。运用该综合方法可直观得出项目的风险等级,判断该PPP模式是否适用于具体项目,并且根据结果规避风险,为以后的PPP模式中项目管理的科学决策起到辅助作用。

Combining with the characteristics of large investment, slow income and multiple risk factors in remote areas PPP model, it is critical to consider PPP project risk in many aspects, so strengthening the risk management of PPP model is very important. In this paper, the basic prin-ciple of the entropy weight method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to conduct risk analysis of PPP model. Firstly, ac-cording to references and PPP project site, the risk evaluation index system is established, secondly, using entropy weight method to determine the weight of each index, thirdly, according to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, establishing the risk level, finally, using an example to verify the calculation results in this paper are accord with the actual results of the field, which confirms the feasibility of the combination of en-tropy weight method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Using the comprehensive method can visually draw project risk level, determine the PPP model is applicable to specific projects, avoid risk based on results , and play a supporting role for the scientific decision of project man- agement in the future PPP model.