SWCWARMS模式对西南区域预报能力的检验

The Verification of SWCWARMS Model in Southwest of China

应用国家基本观测站资料,基于MET系统的客观统计检验方法,针对24h降水、近地面要素(2m温度、10m风)和高空要素(风场、温度场、高度场),分别评估SWCWARMS模式和GRAPES模式对2016年西南地区预报能力,得到如下几点结论:(1)SWCWARMS模式在中雨至暴雨预报上优于GRAPES模式,24h小雨和大暴雨、48h大暴雨预报较GRAPES模式偏差,同时SWCWARMS模式存在空报较多的问题;(2)SWCWARMS模式预报2米温度以低于实况为主,10m风速在秋冬季节以大于实况为主,SWCWARMS模式2m温度、10m纬向风和10m经向风4个季度平均RMSE均小于GRAPES模式,但8月月平均(72h)2m温度RMSE大于GRAPES模式,模式对近地面温度场预报优于10m风场;(3)两模式对高空温度场预报优于高度场和风场,SWCWARMS模式预报对流层中层高度场和温度场都偏低,在500h Pa上,除2月、11~12月(24h)外,其它月份和其它预报时效温度场RMSE均小于GRAPRS模式,春夏季高度场的预报优于GRAPRS模式,秋冬季RMSE大于GRAPRS模式;在850h Pa上,SWCWARMS模式预报风场春夏季误差小于GRAPES模式多于秋冬季,冬半年风场误差大于夏半年,RMSE大于GRAPES模式频次增加。

Using national obse^ation data and automatic station precip）itation data,based on objective statistical metliods, the prediction ability of the precipitation（ 24h cumulative rainfall）,the surface elements（2m temperature, 10m wind） and theheight element（ such as wind,temperature,height） in southwest China in 2016 of SWCWARMS mowere evaluated and compared,the main conclusions are as follows. （ 1 ） the SWCWARMS modemodel in moderate to heavy rain forecast,24 h light rain and torrential rain , 48h torrential rain amodel,while the SWCWARMS model has empty forecast problems. （2）the 2m temperature of SWCWARMS model is belo＇w to observation,and the 10mwind speed of SWCWARMS model in autumn and winter is more than observation,the quarterly aver-age RMSE of 2m temperature,10m zonal wind and meridional wind of SWCWARMS model is less than GRAPES model,how-ever,the monthly average RMSE of 2m temperature （72h） is larger than the GRAPES model in August,and thnear _ surface temperature field is better than the 10m wind field. （3） the temperature field prediction by two models is betterthan the height field and wind field,SWCWARMS model predicts that the middle tropospheric geopotentiatemperature field are lower than observation,the prediction of the temperature field and the his better than the GRAPRS model. On the 500hPa,except in 2 ,11 -12 （2 4 h ） ,the RMSE of temperature fromSWCWARMSmodel are less than GRAPRS model on other months and other forecast aging,the prediction of height fiof GRAPRS model in spring and summer,the RMSE is greater tiian the GRAPRS model in autumn and winter. On ththe SWCWARMS model predicts the RMSEof wind field is smaller the GRAPRS model in spring aof the wind field in winter half year is greater than that of the summer half year,the frequency of the RMSEof SWCWmodel greater than GRAPES model is increased in winter half year.