社会信任、收益率波动与银行风险

Social Trust,Yield Fluctuation and Bank Risk

社会信任是经济交换的润滑剂,是监督契约执行最有效的机制。本文基于2007-2015年我国城市商业银行数据,发现社会信任水平的提高显著降低了银行风险。本文进一步揭示了社会信任对银行风险的影响渠道,发现收益率波动在社会信任与银行风险之间起到了显著的中介效应,中介效应占总效应的比重高达90.43%,即存在社会信任→资产收益率波动→银行风险的传导机制。本文还发现,在法律保护水平较高的地区,社会信任对银行风险的降低作用更为突出。本文结论意味着,通过改善地区社会信任水平可以有效地遏制银行风险。

Social trust is a lubricant for economic exchange, and the most effective mechanism for supervising contract enforcement. Based on the data of China＇s city commercial banks from 2007 to 2015, the paper analyzes the impact of social trust on bank risk. The study find that the improvement of social trust significantly reduced the bank risk, and further revealed the impact of social trust on bank risk. It is found that the fluctuation of asset return has played significant mediating effects on social trust and bank risk, and the proportion of median effect on the total effect is up to 90.43~. There is a transmission mechanism of ＂social trust to the fluctuation of asset return, and then to the bank bankruptcy risk＂. Finally, this paper finds that the social trust in the areas with high legal protection is more prominent in reducing the bank risk. The research of this paper has a strong policy means that by improving the level of social trust can effectively curb bank risk.