基于累积前景理论的大群体风险型动态应急决策方法

Method of dynamic emergency decision for risk type of large group based on cumulative prospect theory

针对复杂环境下决策者对于应急事件作出的决策往往会面对偏好转移的问题,提出一种新的大群体风险型动态应急决策方法.首先利用偏好判断矩阵对全体决策者偏好进行聚类分析和偏好集结;其次,利用累积前景理论计算决策大群体的总体前景值;再次,考虑未来状态转移链,经过多轮调整得出决策者偏好转移矩阵,结合偏好转移矩阵和大群体总体前景值可得到当前突发事件状态下的最优方案;最后,通过案例分析与对比表明所提出方法的有效性和可行性.

Due to decision makers usually face the problem of preference transfer when they make decisions for emergency events in the complex environment, a new method of dynamic emergency decision for the risk type of a large group is proposed. At first, the preference judgment matrix is used to aggregate and cluster the decision makers＇ preference. Then,the cumulative prospect theory can be used to calculate the overall outlook value of the large group of decision making.Moreover, according to the future state transition chain, the transition matrix of the decision maker＇s preference is obtained through multi-stage adjustment. Associating preference transfer matrix with the overall outlook value of a large group,the optimal scheme on the current state is given. Finally, the case analysis and comparison verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.