基于GM(1,1)模型的中国油茶产业发展预测

Development Forecast of China's Camellia oleifera Industry Based on GM( 1,1) Model

为探究未来5年中国油茶产业发展趋势,判断其优势,利用2007—2014年中国总油料、木本油料及油茶籽油料产量的数据,采用GM(1,1)预测模型,运用MATLAB软件实现了预测算法并进行了精度检验,对2015—2020年中国总油料、木本油料及油茶籽油料产量进行预测。预测结果表明:油茶籽产量未来5年增幅明显,始终占木本油料总产量中主要地位,油茶在今后一段时期内有较好的发展趋势。

⑴Background——The self supply rate of edible oil in China is low and could not meet the need of consumer market.Camellia oleifera is a kind of unique Chinese woody oil in southern China with the advantages of use of resources of land effectively,etc.With the increasing consumption capacity,consumers had paid more attention to their health.So that Camellia oleifera had received more attention with its rich nutrition and health value.⑵Methods——The data of seed yield of total oil,woody oil and camellia oleifera from 2007 to 2014 were from China Statistics Yearbooks(2014)and China Forestry Statistical Yearbook(from 2007 to 2014).Base on the 3 sets of data of total oil,woody oil and Camellia oleifera,GM(1,1)model was established to predict the seed yield of total oil,woody oil and Camellia oeifera,and analyzed the predict results.⑶Results——The prediction result is feasible base on checking by relative error.The seed yield of Camellia oleifera is the prerequisite and support for the rapid development of Camellia oleifera industry.The prediction results of the grey model show that the seed yield of Camellia oleifera would be the most productive one in all kinds of woody oil for a long time.The prediction data from 2015-2020 showed that the seed yield of Camellia oleifera always occupies the 97%above of the total seed yield in woody oil.In prediction results,the ratio of woody oil to total oil production has been greatly improved and the rate would reach 11.16%by 2020.So that the woody oil still has more development room.The seed total yield of Camellia oleifera has been substantially enhanced.Compared with the data in 2015,the seed yield of Camellia oleifera in 2020 would raise by 107%.From 2015 to 2020,the seed yield of Camellia oleifera increased significantly relative to the steady rise in total oil.So Camellia oleifera industry has a strong momentum of development.⑷Conclusions and Discussion——The forecast result indicated that the seed yield of Camellia oleifera would maintain a rapid growth rate in the next period of time from 2015 to 2020,but it is necessary to focus on the following 6 aspects to speed up the development of Camellia oleifera industry:Firstly,the planting area should be continually expanded by focusing on the effective utilization of the region of barren hills and wasteland in southern area;Secondly,the dominant seedling sprout should be chose to transform low yield Camellia oleifera forest;Thirdly,the research and development of the management cultivation technology should be strengthened to ensure the survival rate and fruit production rate;Fourthly,the support for tea industry should be increased to increase investment and technology;Fifthly,advanced pressing technology should be used to improve oil yield and reduce the cost;Finally,the Camellia oleifera industry chain should be developed to improve the utilization of Camellia oleifera and seed.This paper based on the comparison of the existing data of the seed yield of Camellia oleifera,woody oil and total oil,which carried out the quantitative prediction analysis of Camellia oleifera industry development.Due to the limited data,the influence factors of the camellia oleifera production were not fully concerned,and the Grey forecasting model of GM(1,1)is suitable to fix the problem of lacking data,so this paper only used the date of oil seed production to complete the prediction.In the further researches hope to use more data,such as the output value of Camellia oleifera,and consumption of Camellia oleifera,to predict and evaluate the Camellia oleifera industry in all aspects.