合肥市商业地价驱动因素的空间非平稳性分析

Spatially Non-stationary Analysis Between Commercial Land Price and Driving Factors in Hefei City

基于微观因素的视角,对合肥市商业地价的空间格局、空间异质性进行空间插值和回归分析,研究发现:(1)商业地价空间格局呈现多中心的结构,峰值区集中分布在城市中心,低值区分布在二环线以外的地区;(2)GWR模型能清晰地反映出各因素对地价影响力的空间差异,容积率、交通站点、CBD和公园是研究区商业地价的关键驱动因素;(3)较之外在因素,内在因素对商业地价的边际作用效率较大,其中尤以容积率最为突出;(4)相较于欠发达地区,容积率在高度发达的区域对地价的正向效应更为显著,而交通站点和CBD对地价的作用正好相反。商业开发更愿意为小型公园支付更高的价格。

Land is a kind of scarce non-renewable natural resources. Price mechanism plays a key role in the ra- tional allocation and effective utilization of land resources, especially in the rapid development of large cities where land use changes frequently. Therefore, quantitative study on the spatial characteristics between land price and its driving factors is critical. Based on the perspective of micro driving factors of land price, the spa- tial pattern and spatial heterogeneity of commercial land price in Hefei are analyzed by Inverse Distance Weighted（IDW） and Geographically Weighted Regression（GWR）. The study shows that： 1） The spatial pattern of commercial land price presents a multi-center structure, the peak district of land price in the central area of the city, and the low value area outside the second ring road in the city. 2） The GWR model based on the lo- cal statistical analysis can clearly reflect the spatial difference of the influence of driving factors on land price. Floor area ratio, D, Dtraf,Dpark and DCBD are the key driving factors of commercial land price in the study ar- ea. 3） Compared with the external driving factors of commercial land price, the marginal effect of internal fac- tors on commercial land price is greater, especially the influence of the floor area ratio on commercial land price is the most prominent. 4） Compared with the less developed areas, the effect of floor area ratio in highly developed areas enhancing the land price is more significant. However, the role mechanism of Dtraf and DCBD on commercial land prices is just the opposite. In addition, business development and construction are more will- ing to pay a higher price for a small park. However, the infrastructure＇ s imperfection, as well as ecological con- servation requirements（close to some large parks） will have a negative impact. The outputs of this article, that provide detailed information on the relationships between commercial land price and driving factors in study areas, are promising for urban planners to scientifically evaluate land price and make area-specific strategies.