环境模型中敏感性分析方法评述

Comment on Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Environmental Models

模型本身及其参数的不确定性使其模拟结果的可靠性备受争议,科学地认识模型的不确定性并对其进行定量的评价一直是环境模型研究的前沿,也是环境模型构建和应用过程中不可缺少的环节.通过敏感性分析,研究模型输入参数的变化对模型输出结果的影响程度,有助于了解并简化模型结构、提高参数率定效率、增进模型精度并增加模型应用的可靠性.本研究总结了敏感性分析在环境模型中的作用,并对常见的敏感性分析方法的原理、应用范围和优缺点进行了综述.最后,阐述了敏感性分析在环境模型模拟决策中应用的现状和未来研究方向.

Environmental models have been regarded as a key method to study the complex conditions of environmental systems.Sensitivity analysis（SA） is a vital step,which aims to investigate the impact of model inputs on model outputs.During the application of environmental models,SA plays a significant role in simplifying the model structure and improving the precision and reliability of the simulation.Consequently,identification and analysis of sensitivity parameters in environmental models is an important issue.This paper provides an introduction to the functions of SA in environmental models.Mathematical theories and methods used for SA are summarized,and their applications,advantages,and limits.On this basis,development trends for the use of SA for environmental models are proposed.