基于气候改变情况下的水资源动态承载力分析

Analysis on the dynamic carrying capacity of water resources based on climate change

气候变化是全球性主要环境问题之一,在未来一段时间内,气候变化将加深我国水资源的供需之间的矛盾,对水资源动态承载力产生重要影响。基于此,笔者结合实际情况以及多年的水利工作经验,对水资源动态承载力的概念进行分析,对后期的动态承载力的计算提出一些研究方法与理论框架,并以细河流域为实例进行相关分析。

Climate change is one of main global environmental problems. Climate change will deepen the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources in our country and produce important influence on the dynamic bearing capacity of the water resources within a period of time in the future. On the basis,the author combines with the actual situation and the water conservancy work experience for many years for analyzing the concept of water resources dynamic bearing capacity,some research methods and theoretical frameworks are proposed for calculating subsequent dynamic bearing capacity,and carrying out related analysis with small river basin as an example.