二胎生育:“意愿——行为”究竟哪些因素在起决定性作用——一项针对籍贯为吉林省育龄夫妇的实证研究

Second Child Birth:“Intention-Action” What Factors in the Decisive?——An Empirical Study for Native Couples of Child-Bearing Age in Jilin Province

基于全面二孩政策,选取籍贯为吉林省的500对儿育龄夫妇做滚雪球抽样调查,区分对比有生育意愿暂无生育抉择的一孩夫妇和已经有二胎生育抉择的夫妇在诸多客观因素上的倾向,并在此基础上针对典型个案辅以深入访谈,力图探寻盘亘在从生育意愿到生育行为之间的最主要的制约和推进性的因素是什么。研究结果表明,具有生育率低、计划生育手段执行率高地域特征的吉林省,在二胎政策的背景下,育龄夫妇的二胎生育意愿受限的因素与以往研究相类似。结合后继的深入访谈,突出的一个结论是,与那些仅仅抱有二胎意愿的育龄夫妇相比,已经生育二胎的夫妇在做出最终生育抉择时起决定性作用的因素是来源于一些非量化主观的情感诉求,且这些诉求在生育二胎后得到预期的情感回馈。在此基础上,研究如何在政策群建立和社会氛围营造上,配合二胎开放政策,力促社会整体生育率的提升。

In view of the comprehensive two-child policy,the domestic scholars do many studies of fertility desire.This paper selects 500 couples of childbearing age for a snowball sampling in Jilin,China and makes a comparison of the tendency towards many objective factors between one child couples who have fertility desires but no birth choices and couples who already have second birth choices.In-depth interviews were conducted with typical cases on that basis,aiming to fathom the most restrictive and propulsive factor from fertility desire to birth choice.The result shows that in the context of the two-child policy,factors associated with fertility restriction in the second child of child-bearing age are similar to those of previous studies in Jilin where exists a low birth rate and well-implemented family planning.Combining subsequent in-depth interviews,a prominent conclusion is that the decisive factor of the final reproductive decision made by couples who already have a second child is derived from some non-quantitative subjective emotional appeals which get the desired emotional feedback after giving birth to a second child,compared with childbearing couples who only have fertility desires for a second child.And on this basis,this research discussed how to establish policy group and to build social atmosphere matched twochild policy,it makes every efforts to promote the increase of overall social fertility rate.