2004-2011年广东省四会市肝癌发病空间特征分析

Spatial Analysis on Primary Liver Cancer Incidence in Sihui County,Guangdong Province,2004-2011

【目的】探索2004-2011年广东省四会市肝癌发病的空间分布模式,为四会市肝癌防控工作提供理论依据。【方法】利用Sa TScan 9.4.4计算时空扫描统计量,对2004-2011年四会市各乡镇肝癌的发病率进行空间分析,并结合地理信息系统(Arc GIS 10.2)实现分析结果的可视化。【结果】2004-2011年广东省四会市肝癌累计发病1252例,发病率总体呈上升趋势,波动范围为32.67/10万~41.14/10万。空间扫描发现肝癌发病存在聚集性,结果显示总人群肝癌发病率高发性聚集区主要位于四会市南部及东南部地区,包括东城街道、大沙镇和龙甫镇(似然比LLR=6.34,P=0.019,相对危险度RR=1.31);低聚集区集中于中部偏北地区,包括罗源镇、地豆镇和江谷镇(LLR=8.66,P=0.001,RR=0.67)。男性扫描结果与总人群聚集结果一致,高发聚集区包括东城街道等3个地区(LLR=5.83,P=0.025,RR=1.33);低发聚集区包括罗源镇等3个地区(LLR=7.65,P=0.004,RR=0.65);女性扫描结果显示一个高聚集区,共包括大沙镇、东城、城中和贞山街道以及龙甫镇(LLR=5.18,P=0.043,RR=1.41)。【结论】四会市肝癌发病呈持续上升趋势,并存在明显的空间聚集性,提示应进一步探索相关地区肝癌的危险因素,加强其肝癌防治。

【Objective】To explore the spatial distribution pattern of liver cancer in Sihui city,Guangdong Province from 2004 to2011,and to provide theoretical evidence for prevention and control of liver cancer.【Methods】Spatial scan statistic was applied,andanalysis were conducted by using software Sa TScan 9.4.4 to detect the clusters in Sihui from 2004 to 2011.Map making and resultsvisualizing were carried out with software Arc GIS 10.2.【Results】A total of 1252 cases was reported in Sihui City,GuangdongProvince from 2004 to 2011,with the incidence of liver cancer increasing from 32.67/100000 to 41.14/100000. Spatial scans resultsshowed that highly clustered areas are mainly located in the south and southeast,which include Dasha,Longfu and Dongchengcountries in all people(LLR=6.34,P=0.019,RR=1.31)and the male(LLR=5.83,P=0.025,RR=1.33),respectively;highlyclustered areas in female were include Dasha,Dongcheng,Chengzhong and other two countries(LLR=5.18,P=0.043,RR=1.41).Lowly clustered areas in all people are mainly located in the north,which include Luoyuan,Didou and Jiangfu countries(LLR=8.66,P=0.001,RR=0.67).【Conclusion】The incidence of primary liver cancer in Sihui was increasing over time,and spatial clustering ofthe cases were observed. Further study should be focused on the risk factors of liver cancer in related areas to strengthen theprevention and control of liver cancer.