反映价格变化趋势的建设项目经济评价方法探讨──兼论对水利水电项目经济评价及其方案比较的影响

Economic evaluation method reflecting price change trend for construction projects:Its effect on economic evaluation and comparison of schemes for hydropower projects

提出一种反映价格变化趋势的建设项目经济评价方法,导出在全程平均价格年变化率和分期平均价格年变化率条件下的价格与基准年固定价格的换算系数,进一步推导了各种经济评价指标的计算公式。用典型算例说明:在正常的价格变化范围内,价格变化对建设项目经济可行性评价结果和方案比较结果可能产生颠覆性的影响,因此反映价格变化趋势是必要的。该方法为在建设项目经济评价中反映价格趋势的变化提供了一种可行技术,使评价结果更符合实际。

The economic evaluation method for construction projects,which reflects the price change trend,is proposed. The conversion factors,which convert the fixed price in the base year into that in each calculating year under the annual change rates of price in the whole calculation period or in the sub stages,are respectively derived. Furthermore,the formulas for various economic evaluation indices are deduced. Based on a representative numerical example,it is shown that the evaluation results of the economic feasibility and case choice of a construction project obtained by using the fixed price method may be thoroughly wrong in the range of normal change of price.Therefore,it is necessary to concern the change trend of price.The proposed method is a feasible technique for the economic evaluation of construction projects,and it can achieve more realistic results.