摘要
为应对干旱、洪涝等降水事件给相关经济主体带来的风险,基于1953年1月至2016年12月福州市月均累积降水量数据,运用威尔克斯法对降水量进行建模,利用蒙特卡罗模法对降水期权进行定价从而得到降水期权价值,并提出发展我国降水期权的政策建议。
In order to deal with the risk brought by the droughts and floods to the relevant economic subjects,the option pricing theory is employed to provide a risk management tool to respond the precipitation events. Based on the monthly mean precipitation data of Fuzhou from January 1953 to December 2016,the Wilks' method is used to simulate the precipitation,and the precipitation options are valued by means of the Monte Carlo simulation. Some policy proposals are put forward for developing the precipitation options in China.
出处
《水利经济》
2017年第6期44-49,共6页
Journal of Economics of Water Resources
基金
教育部重点支持领域科研专项(20116B31914)
关键词
降水期权
定价
威尔克斯法
蒙特卡罗模拟
precipitation option
pricing
Wilks' method
Monte Carlo simulation
