区域水资源消耗差异的影响因素分析——LMDI模型的新应用

Influence factors for differences in regional water use based on LMDI method

使用1998—2014年西北地区5省(区)的数据,基于LMDI方法分解分析5省(区)之间用水量和用水强度差异的影响因素,将用水量差异分解为强度效应、结构效应、收入效应和人口效应,用水强度差异分解为强度效应和结构效应。研究结果表明:1998年和2014年西北5省用水量差异的影响因素存在显著的异质性;1998年用水强度差异主要来源于产业用水强度的差异,而2014年产业结构差异对用水强度差异的贡献有所增加,产业用水强度差异的贡献缩小。省份用水量与用水强度差异的影响因素异质性也表明各省份缩小用水量和用水强度差异需要贯彻执行有差异化的水资源政策。

Using the data from five provinces in Northwestern China from 1998 to 2014,the factors influencing their water use and its intensity analyzed based on the LMDI method. The differences in the water use are decomposed into intensity effect,industrial structural effect,income effect and population effect,and those in the water use intensity are decomposed into intensity effect and industrial structural effect. The results show that the influence factors for differences of water use in the five provinces in Northwestern China are significantly heterogeneous in 1998 and 2014. The differences in the water use intensity are mainly due to the industrial water use intensity in 1998. However,the contribution of differences in industrial structure to the differences of the water use intensity increases,and the contribution of differences in industrial water use intensity decreases. The heterogeneity of the influence factors of water use and its intensity in the provinces indicates that different provinces need to implement differentiated water policies to reduce the differences between water use and its intensity.