中国能源消费碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系及驱动因素研究

Decoupling and Driving Factors Analysis between the Energy Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in China

将Tapio脱钩指数法与Kaya恒等式和LMDI因素分解法相结合,对中国1996-2014年期间的能源消费碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系及驱动因素进行了分析。实证结果表明:在时间序列上,1996-2000年中国能源消费碳排放与经济增长脱钩效果最理想,2000年以后总体脱钩状态呈现出"M"型的波动特点。在空间视角上,新疆、海南、陕西、宁夏和北京这五个省市脱钩状态具有显著特征,并对其进行了深入研究。在驱动因素研究过程中发现,能源强度和经济发展是影响GDP与碳排放脱钩的主要驱动因素,能源结构因素和人口因素将会成为今后进一步促进GDP与碳排放脱钩的主要驱动力。

The decoupling relationship between energy carbon emission and economic growth and driving factors in China during 1996 -2014 are analyzed by the combination of the Tapio decoupling index method, the Kaya equation and the LMDI factor decomposition method.The empirical results show that in the time series, China＇s decoupling effect of energy carbon emissions and economic growth is the best from1996 to 2000, and the decoupling status presents wave characteristics of M type after 2000. In space, the decoupling sta-tus of Xinjiang, Hainan, Shaanxi,Ningxia and Beijing has remarkable characteristics,so we carried on the thorough research on it. In the process of studying the driving factors, we find energy intensity and economic development are the main driving factors influencing the decoupling of GDP and carbon emissions, and the energy structure and population will be the main driving forces to further promote the decoupling of GDP and carbon emissions in future.