我国财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响效应——基于1995-2015年分省面板数据的实证分析

The Effect of Fiscal Agriculture Expenditures on Rural Residents' Consumption——Based on the Panel Data of 28 Provinces and Cities of China from 1995 to 2015

基于1995-2015年分省面板数据,运用固定效应变系数模型研究我国财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响效应。研究结果表明:财政支农支出对农村居民消费存在显著的影响效应;财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响方向存在区域差异,东部沿海地区财政支农支出对农村居民消费具有"挤入效应"(浙江省除外),中西部地区财政支农支出对农村居民消费产生"挤出效应"的省(市)要多于东部沿海地区;财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响程度也存在区域差异,东部沿海地区浙江省财政支农支出对农村居民消费的"挤出效应"大于中西部地区省份,而中西部地区财政支农支出对农村居民消费的"挤入效应"大于东部沿海地区。

Based on the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2015, the fixed effect variable coefficient model is used to analyze the effect of fiscal agriculture expenditures on rural residents＇ consumption. The results show that fiscal agriculture expenditures have a significant impact on rural residents＇ consumption. The direction of impact of fiscal agriculture expenditures on rural residents＇ consumption has regional differences. In eastern coastal areas, it presents ＂ squeezing effect＂ （except for Zhejiang Province） , and in central and western regions, the number of provinces or cities presenting ＂ crowding out effect＂ is more than those in the east.There are also regional differences in the degree of impact of fiscal agriculture expenditures on rural residents＇ consumption. The ＂crowding out effect＂ of Zhejiang Province is bigger than that in central and western coastal areas, while the ＂ squeezing effect＂ in central and western regions is bigger than that in eastern coastal areas.