农业部门与工业部门:互哺还是反哺——基于空间杜宾模型

Agricultural and Industrial Sector:Feeding Each Other or Back-Feeding——A Study Based on Spatial Durbin Model

基于乡村振兴战略以及"以工促农、以城带乡"的城乡一体化政策背景,探讨我国现阶段的工农关系。研究结果显示,第一,工业与农业之间存在互哺关系,农业对工业的产出弹性甚至略微大于工业对农业的产出弹性;第二,需求侧仍是农业与工业增长的主要驱动力,农业部门的需求对两部门的增长效应均较为明显,两部门之间要素供需较为匹配,但存在农业投入过剩现象,化工产业也存在调整空间;第三,工业各供给要素仍存在对农业增长的弹性效力较小或不显著的现象,农业与工业两部门供给侧改革仍有待深化。据此提出推进供给侧改革、拓宽农村消费途径以及利用好土地、劳动力、资本和创新等建议。

Based on the rural revitalization strategy and "industry promoting agriculture" and "urban leading rural" integration policy between urban and rural,the paper discusses the current relationship between agriculture and industry in China.The results show that,first of all,there is mutual feed relationship between industry and agriculture,and the output elasticity of agriculture to industry is even slightly greater than the output elasticity of industry to agriculture.Second,the demand side is still the dominant driving force for agriculturial and industrial growth.The effect of demand from agriculture on the growth of two sectors is evident,the factor supply and demand between two sectors seems matched,but agricultural input presents surplus and chemical industry has space to adjust.Third,The supply factors of industry still have small or insignificant effect on the growth elasticity of agriculture,and the supply-side reform of the agricultural and industrial sectors still needs to be deepened.Hereby,we put forward suggestions to promote the supply side reform,such as broadening rural consumption and making good use of land,labor and capital as well as innovation.