通用地球系统模式对亚洲夏季风降水的模拟能力评估

Evaluation of community earth system model in simulating Asian summer monsoon precipitation

通过与观测/再分析资料和参加第五次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的模式模拟结果进行对比,评估了通用地球系统模式(CESM,1.0.3版本)对亚洲夏季风降水的模拟能力。结果表明:CESM能够合理地模拟出亚洲夏季风降水的气候平均态,但与其他CMIP5模式模拟结果类似,对中国东南地区降水模拟偏少,而对中国西部高原地区降水模拟偏多;CESM可以再现亚洲季风区降水冬弱夏强、雨带北进南退的季节变化特征,其模拟偏差具有区域性和季节性差异;从EOF分析结果来看,CESM能够模拟出亚洲夏季风降水的时空变化特征,且能较好地抓住亚洲夏季风降水与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation,简称ENSO)的相关关系。总的说来,CESM对亚洲夏季风降水的模拟是合理的,模拟水平与4个最好的CMIP5模式相当。

The performance of the Community Earth System Model( CESM,vesion1.0.3) in simulating the Asian summer monsoon precipitation was assessed by comparing with the observational/reanalysis datasets and the models outputs participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project( CMIP5).Results show that the CESM can simulate the climatology of Asian summer monsoon precipitation reasonably,but it simulated less precipitation in Southeast China and more one in western plateau region of China,which is similar to the results of other CMIP5 models.CESM can reproduce the sea-sonal variation of wet summer and dry winter,northward or southward migration of the rain belt,whose simulation biases are different regionally and seasonally.The EOF analysis results show that the CESM also has the ability to simulate the spatial-temporal variations of the summer monsoon precipitation and show better performance on revealing the relationship between the Asian summer monsoon precipitation and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation( ENSO) than other CMIP5 models.Generally,the CESM is reliable to simulate Asian summer monsoon precipitation and is comparable to the four best models selected from those participate in CMIP5.