人口老龄化与基本医疗费用支出的关联效应测度——基于全国省级数据的实证考察

The Measurement of Test the Correlation Relationship between Aging of Population and Basic Medical Expenditure:Base on an Empirical Test of Provincial Panel Data

目前,中国已经进入人口老龄化社会。人口老龄化问题不仅对中国宏观经济有着巨大影响,也给中国医疗费用支出带来了不可忽视的挑战。文章梳理老龄化与医疗服务费用的既有文献,提出人口老龄化对基本医疗费用关联影响的应然性。通过建构关联模型,借助于30个省份的面板数据,研究发现:(1)65岁以上的人口比重和人口抚养比均对人均门诊费用产生显著性的正向影响,但对人均住院费用尚无显著影响;(2)人均GDP、三级医院比重以及时间变量都对人均医疗费用的增加产生了正向效应;(3)每千人卫生技术人员数、城镇人口比重抑制了人均医疗费用的增长,但医疗保险参保率和死亡率尚未对人均医疗费用产生显著性影响。研究表明,人口老龄化水平的增加会显著促进门诊费用的上涨,但其对住院费用并无显著性影响。基于此,提出相应的政策建议,以抑制基本医疗费用的快速增长,从而促进社会质量的有效提升。

At present, China has entered an aging society. The problem of population aging not only has a great impact on China＇s macro-economic, but also has brought out un-ignored challenges on China＇s medical expenditure. This paper combs the existing literature on aging and medical service cost, and puts forward the contingency of population aging on the impact of basic medical expenses. By constructing the correlation model, and by means of panel data of 30 provinces except Tibet, the study finds： （1） The proportion of population and population dependency ratio over 65 years had significant positive effects on per capita outpatient costs, but it has the un-significant effects on average per capita hospitalization rate. （2） The per capita GDP, tertiary hospital proportion and time variable had positive effects on the increase of medical expenses per capita; However, the insured rate and mortality rate of medical insurance have not significantly affected the per capita medical expenses. （3） The number of health workers per 1000 population, the proportion of urban population, inhibited the per capita medical expenditure. The Study has shown that the increase of the level of population aging will significantly promote the out-patient costs, but it has not significant impact on hospital costs. Based on this, this paper attempts to put forward the corresponding policy recommendations, in order to curb the rapid growth of basic medical expenses, so as to promote the effective promotion of social quality.