摘要
对电力市场电网投资回收风险的准确评估,能够有效提升电网运行水平。对电网投资回收风险的评估,需要对电网投资回收风险驱动因素进行分析,分析因素之间的非线性关系,完成对电网投资回收风险的评估,传统方法建立电网投资回收风险评估指标体系,计算及优先等级的划分确定电网投资回收风险水平,但忽略了风险因素之间的非线性关系,导致评估精度偏低。提出基于生命周期的电力市场下电网投资回收风险评估方法。该方法组建包含极限输送功率以及系统稳定指数的电网投资回收风险评估指标体系,将电网投资项目划分为建设阶段和运行阶段,对电网投资项目阶段中风险及风险驱动因素进行分析,组建电网投资回收风险评估模型,分析投资回收风险因素之间的非线性关系,深入讨论投资回收风险因素对电力市场的影响。实验结果表明,所提方法可以全面客观地对电网进行综合评估,提高电网投资回收风险管理的科学性和准确度。
A risk assessment method for power grid investment recovery under power market is proposed based on life cycle. Firstly, the evaluation index system of recovery risk of power grid investment is formed including limit transportation power and system stability index, and the investment project of power grid is divided into construction stage and operation stage. Then risk and risk driver factor in the stage of power grid investment project are analyzed, the assessment model of recovery risk of power grid investment is constructed, and nonlinear relationship among risk factors of investment recovery is analyzed. Finally, the influence of risk factors of investment recovery on power mar- ket is discussed. Simulation results show that the mentioned method can comprehensively assess power grid and im- prove accuracy of risk management for power grid investment recovery.
作者
李婵娟
LI Chan-juan(Nanjing University Posts and Telecommunications School of Economic, Jiangsu Nanjing 210023, China)
出处
《计算机仿真》
北大核心
2017年第11期386-389,共4页
Computer Simulation
关键词
电力电网
投资风险
准确评估
Power grid
Investment risk
Accurate assessment
