产业结构高级化与城镇化对城乡收入差距的影响研究

Effect of Industrial Structure Upgrading and Urbanization on Urban-Rural Income Gap

为探寻产业结构高级化与城镇化对城乡收入差距的影响机理,运用VAR模型验证我国1978~2016年的时间序列数据变量。结果显示,产业结构高级化、城镇化与城乡收入差距存在长期均衡关系。产业结构高级化对城乡收入差距的冲击区域图呈"S型拖尾",其影响随时间变化呈明显差异,不同时期贡献不同,可分为"阵痛期""受益期""平稳期"三个阶段;我国约在2013年度过产业结构调整"阵痛期",进入"受益期"。而城镇化对城乡收入差距冲击形成"象"型,2009年城镇化率达45.64%,出现拐点,即我国已步入提升城镇化水平可缩小城乡收入差距的良性发展阶段。

VAR model was used to verify time series data variables of 1978-2016 in China, forexploring the effect mechanism of industrial structure upgrading and the urbanization on the urban-ruralincome gap. The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship among those variables. ＂S-type smearing＂ regional figure was used to describe the impact of the industrial structure upgrading onthe urban-rural income gap, which would present differentiation as time going on and the contribution wasdifferent in different time periods. It could be divided into three stages, including ＂painful period＂, ＂benefitperiod＂ and ＂stationary period＂. In 2013, China’s industrial structure adjustment had experienced the ＂painful period＂ and entered the ＂benefit period＂. ＂Elephant＂ type could be used to describe the impact ofthe urbanization on the urban-rural income gap. Turning point appeared when the urbanization rate reached45.64% in 2009. China had stepped into the stage, which could narrow the income gap between urban-ruralareas by raising the level of urbanization.