海南省区域性暴雨过程综合强度评估方法研究

Study of Integrated Intensity Assessment of Regional Rainstorm Process in Hainan province

利用1961-2014年海南省逐日降水量资料和4个暴雨过程评估单项指标,采用百分位法建立分项等级评估指标,再分别利用等权重法和百分位法建立区域性暴雨过程综合强度的定量评估模型和确定综合强度等级划分标准。利用该模型对海南省历史上发生的不同等级区域性暴雨过程进行了检验,并对2015年夏、秋季和2016年夏季的9次区域性暴雨过程进行评估应用检验。结果表明:综合考虑区域性暴雨过程的极端强度、持续时间和影响范围等不同指标构建的区域性暴雨过程评估模型,可以较为客观和全面反映海南省区域性暴雨过程的综合强度,并能实现对当地区域性暴雨过程的逐日滚动评估,可较好地满足当地区域性暴雨事件快速、准确评估的业务和服务需求。

Based on the daily precipitation in Hainan Province from 1961 to 2014 and four indicators of the rainstorm process assessment, the quantitative assessment model of regional rainstorm process was established by equal weight method and percentile method. And the percentile method was used to establish the index of grading assessment to determine the integrated intensity classification criteria. The model was applied to test different levels of regional rainstorm processes in the history of Hainan Province. The nine regional rainstorm processes during the summer of 2016 and the summer and autumn of 2015 were also evaluated and tested. The results show that the regional rainstorm process assessment model based on the extreme intensity, duration and influence range can reflect the integrated intensity of the regional rainstorm process in Hainan Province objectively and comprehensively. Daily rolling evaluation of the regional rainstorm process in Hainan Province can also be achieved, which can meet the profession and service needs of a rapid and accurate regional rainstorm event assessment.