灰色综合评价法在流域水电规划开发方案优选中的应用

Application of Grey Comprehensive Evaluation Method in River Basin Hydropower Planning Scheme Optimization

水电开发涉及经济、社会、环境等诸多方面,是一个复杂的综合问题。以湾坝河干流水电规划为例,从经济因素、水能因素、环境因素3个方面阐述影响流域水电开发综合效益的因素,构建流域水电规划开发方案优选指标体系,引入基于模糊层次分析法和熵值法的组合赋权方法确定指标权重,采用灰色关联分析对各方案的综合效益进行量化评估,并与工程实际进行对比分析,发现该评价模型优选的方案与推荐方案一致。

Hydropower development involving many aspects,such as economy, society and environment,is a complex and comprehensive issue.Considering the economic factors,the water factors and the environmental factors on the influence factors of river basin hydropower development comprehensive benefits,an index system of optimal selection of river basin hydropower planning development scheme was built for the Wan Ba River,which is located in the state of Ganzi,Sichuan province.The index weights were determined by using the combination weighting method based on fuzzy AHP and entropy combination weighting method.Based on the calculated weights,the grey relational analysis was used to quantitatively evaluate the comprehensive benefits of each scheme.By analyzing evaluation results and comparing with engineering practice,it is found that the model selection scheme and the recommended scheme are consistent,which shows that the evaluation model is practical for optimal selection of river basin hydropower planning development scheme.