蒙特卡洛模拟法在房地产开发风险分析中的应用

Application of Monte Carlo simulation method in risk analysis of real estate development

为进一步了解各风险变量对房地产开发的影响,基于概率分析,运用蒙特卡洛模拟法对两个主要不确定风险变量开发成本和销售收入进行定量分析和模拟实验,模拟了两个风险因素组合作用下对项目经济指标的影响及单个风险因素作用下对项目经济指标的影响.实验结果表明,当同时考虑开发成本和销售收入为风险变量时,项目风险度较小;当只考虑开发成本为风险变量时,项目风险度增大.

Based on the probability analysis,Monte Carlo simulation method is used to quanti-tatively analyze and simulate the development cost and sales income of two major uncertain risk variables,the impact of the two risk factors on project economic indicators and the effect of the single risk factors on project economic indicators are simulated,in hopes of finding the impact of each risk variable on real estate development.The result shows that the project risk is small when the development cost and the sales revenue are the risk variables at the same time.When the development cost is only the risk variable,the project risk is increased.