摘要
为进一步了解各风险变量对房地产开发的影响,基于概率分析,运用蒙特卡洛模拟法对两个主要不确定风险变量开发成本和销售收入进行定量分析和模拟实验,模拟了两个风险因素组合作用下对项目经济指标的影响及单个风险因素作用下对项目经济指标的影响.实验结果表明,当同时考虑开发成本和销售收入为风险变量时,项目风险度较小;当只考虑开发成本为风险变量时,项目风险度增大.
Based on the probability analysis,Monte Carlo simulation method is used to quanti-tatively analyze and simulate the development cost and sales income of two major uncertain risk variables,the impact of the two risk factors on project economic indicators and the effect of the single risk factors on project economic indicators are simulated,in hopes of finding the impact of each risk variable on real estate development.The result shows that the project risk is small when the development cost and the sales revenue are the risk variables at the same time.When the development cost is only the risk variable,the project risk is increased.
作者
王秋蓉
陈永当
WANG Qiurong;CHEN Yongdang(School of Mechanical and Electrical, Xi'an Polytechnic University, Xi'an 710048, China)
出处
《西安工程大学学报》
CAS
2017年第5期690-694,705,共6页
Journal of Xi’an Polytechnic University
基金
陕西省科学技术研究项目(2013KRZ21)
中国纺织工业联合会科技项目(2016091)
关键词
房地产开发
蒙特卡洛模拟
风险分析
real estate development
Monte Carlo simulation
risk analysis