议程设置理论在北京的一次检验--基于CGSS(2013)数据的研究

The Agenda-setting Theory in Beijing: A Research Based on the Data from CGSS2013

运用CGSS2013调查数据和慧科搜索数据库的报纸资料,本文回到议程设置理论的出发点,考察2013年北京的媒体议程与受众议程之间的关系。经验研究的结果发现,2013年,北京的媒介议程并不能有效影响受众议程,而不同时间段的媒介议程之间高度相关。本文进一步从大众媒体自身的惯例及当下我国媒体转型的特征出发,解释造成这种特例现象出现的原因。本文的研究结果,为正在进行的我国媒体转型敲了一记警钟,无视受众真正的需求,媒体将失去对受众的影响力。

Based on the survey data from CGSS 2013 and the content analysis data from Huike Database, this study attempted to explore the relationship between media agenda and audience agenda in the contemporary China. This study revealed that, on the contrary to the agenda-setting theory, the media agenda in Beijing cannot affect the audience agenda, as the media agenda in consecutive years are highly correlative. The media routine and on-going media transformation could explain this conclusion. This study implied＇ that traditional media are losing its impact on audience in China, which will become the real crisis for media in China.