基于脱钩理论的城市水资源利用与经济增长关系研究

Research on Relationship Between Urban Water Use and Economic Growth Based on Decoupling Analysis Theory

[目的]探讨水资源利用与经济增长间的相互作用关系,为中国城市水资源利用与经济增长的协调可持续发展提供科学依据和决策参考。[方法]基于脱钩理论,运用Tapio弹性分析法对中国4个直辖市2001—2014年水资源利用与经济增长关系进行研究。[结果](1)中国4个直辖市水资源利用与经济增长总体处于弱脱钩状态。(2)农业用水脱钩关系优于工业。农业用水方面,北京市、天津市与上海市总体处于强脱钩,重庆市为弱脱钩;工业用水方面,北京市与上海市主要处于强脱钩,其余则相反。(3)北京市水资源利用与经济增长的脱钩状态最好,其次是上海市,重庆市的脱钩状态最差。[结论]各市水环境与经济尚未达到协调可持续发展,重庆市发展的压力最大,其次是天津市,北京市与上海市要避免向弱脱钩和负脱钩发展。

[Objective]To explore the interaction between water use and economic growth in order to provide some scientific basis and decision-making reference for the coordinated development of urban water resource utilization and economic growth in China.[Methods]The article based on decoupling theory,use Tapio elastic analysis to research the relationship between water use and economic growth in China＇s four municipalities from 2001 to 2014.[Results]（1）Water resource utilization and economic growth overall were in a weak state of decoupling.（2）Agricultural water decoupling was better than that of industry.In terms of agricultural water use,Beijing,Tianjin and Shanghai cities were strongly decoupled;Chongqing City was in weak decoupling state.For industrial water,Beijing and Shanghai City mainly were in strong decoupling,it was contrary for other two cities.（3）Decoupling state of water use and economic growth in Beijing City was best,followed by Shanghai City,Chongqing City was the worst.[Conclusion]Municipal water environment and economy has not yet reached coordinated and sustainable development.Especially,the development of Chongqing City is facing the greatest pressure,followed by Tianjin City.Beijing and Shanghai City should avoid the negative and weak decoupling development.