知识积累与双元创新能力动态反馈关系研究

Research on Dynamic Relationship between Knowledge Accumulation and Dual Innovation

基于系统动力学方法,在梳理"知识积累-双元创新"系统中各变量之间因果关系的基础上,构建了知识积累与双元创新之间动态演化的系统动力学模型,并采用仿真软件VENSIM PLE进行了仿真模拟。研究表明:(1)知识积累与渐进性创新能力均呈现出增长率逐渐减缓的增长运动;突破性创新能力呈现出先高后低的行为模式,即初创期高、成熟期低。(2)双元创新能力表现出此消彼长、不能共存的特征。(3)知识积累促进渐进性创新能力,抑制突破性创新能力。(4)环境动荡性负向调节知识积累与渐进性创新之间的关系。(5)外部知识源正向调节知识积累与双元创新能力之间的关系,但相比渐进性创新能力而言,其对突破性创新能力的调节作用更为明显。

Based on the method of system dynamics,this study constructs the system dynamics model of knowledge accumulation and dual innovation,which is based on analyzing the causal relationship among different variables in the system of＂knowledge-innovation＂,and the model is simulated by simulation software VENSIM PLE.Results show that：knowledge accumulation and incremental innovation ability perform a growth trend whose rate declines;breakthrough innovation ability is opposite to that trend,i.e.,initial stage is high,but maturity is low;fluctuation environment negatively conditions the relationship between knowledge accumulation and incremental innovation;compared to incremental innovation ability,external knowledge sources have a more obvious positive moderating effect on the relationship between knowledge accumulation and breakthrough innovation.