零利率与负利率的货币政策传导研究

Transmission Mechanism and Transmission Effectiveness of Zero and Negative Interest Rate

文章首先通过建立宏观经济模型,分析差异化的利率调整对企业行为选择与实体经济的影响;然后基于欧元区的大样本数据,使用向量自回归等技术方法,分阶段检验正利率、零利率与负利率的传导效果。研究结果显示:当利率逼近零值时,企业投资实体经济项目的产出与利率的关联度较小;在负利率前提下,如果企业投资实体经济项目的收益较低,降低利率非但不会促进企业增加实体经济项目的投资,反而可能导致经济"脱实向虚",从而形成金融风险。因此,货币政策还需与其他宏观政策相结合,努力提升实体经济项目的回报率,才能引导企业增加投资,并促进供给侧结构性改革的进一步深入。

Zero and negative interest rate policy have special and complex transmission mechanism. The transmission effectiveness also has great uncertainty. At first,this paper establishes a macroeconomic model,which analyzes the impact of interest rate change on corporate behavior and the real economy. Then based on the data in the euro area,we use vector auto-regression model and other technical methods to test transmission effectiveness of different interest rate policies. The conclusion show that when interest rate approaches zero,the correlation between output of investment project and interest rate is quite small; while under the premise of negative interest rate policy,if the profit of investment project is negative,cutting interest rate not only won't stimulate investment,but also may result in financial risks. In consequence,monetary policy should be combined with other macroeconomic policies in order to increase the return rate of the real economy projects,which will guide corporate to increase investment and promote structural reform of the supply.