资本账户开放对就业的门槛效应研究

Analysis on Employment Threshold Effect of Capital Account Openness

文章通过理论机制分析认为,资本账户开放通过经济增长、通货膨胀和经常账户波动三个渠道对一国的就业率产生影响。鉴于此,文章使用多门槛面板回归模型,对66个样本国家进行多层嵌套分组并分析了不同类型国家资本账户开放与就业的非线性关系。研究发现:首先,资本账户开放对就业确实存在门槛效应,且在人均GDP水平、通胀水平和经常账户余额三个门槛变量上都存在显著的双门槛效应;其次,资本账户开放对就业的影响与经常账户余额之间呈现非单调的关系;最后,不同类型国家资本账户开放的就业效应存在显著差异,为了提高就业率,一些新兴经济体可以适当推进资本项目的开放,对于部分发达国家应当加强对跨境资本流动的管制,而我国则应在逐步放开资本账户的同时维持经常账户的盈余以及深化金融市场的发展。

Theoretical analysis finds that capital account openness affects employment ratio via GDP per capita,inflation and current account. Therefore,with the multiple threshold panel data model,this paper investigates the non-liner employment effect of capital account openness in 66 countries grouped by multilayer. Following sets of findings are obtained. Firstly,there is indeed a threshold effect of capital account openness on employment,and significant double threshold effects on the three threshold variables of GDP per capita,inflation ratio and current account balance. Secondly,there is a non-monotonic relationship between the employment effect of capital account openness and current account balance. Finally,this effect has significant national differences. In order to increase the employment rate,some emerging economies should improve the level of opening up,some developed countries should strengthen the control of cross-border capital flows,but China should open capital account step by step,as well as maintain the surplus of current account and perfect financial market.