利率变动对国际铸币税的影响

The Impact of Interest Rate on International Seigniorage

国际储备货币的一个重要收益是货币主权国家将会获得相当规模的国际铸币税,而国际铸币税受到众多因素的影响。文章利用费雪方程式和非抛补利率平价理论构建模型,基于储备货币主权国的角度从定性到定量分析了利率水平对于一国国际铸币税的影响。实证结果表明:一国利率水平对该国未来国际铸币税的规模起到负向的影响作用,当期利率的提高会导致下一期国际铸币税的减少,反之亦然。这一结论对于刚刚加入SDR一篮子货币,同时正在进行利率市场化改革的中国来说有着重要的启示,中国只有继续推动人民币国际化并维持利率稳定才有可能更好地享受国际铸币税收益。

As an international reserved currency,one of the profits is that the home country will get seigniorage from other countries.This article studies the impact of interest rate on international seigniorage by constructing a model with the help of Fisher equation and uncovered interest parity. The empirical results show that the interest rate of a country has a negative effect on the future international seigniorage of this country,which means the increase of interest rate will cause the reduction of international seignior-age in the next period,and vice versa. This conclusion has significance for China,as RMB has just joint the SDR basket and China has been on a reform of interest rate liberalization. China has to continue promoting RMB internationalization and stabilizing interest rate so as to better enjoy the benefits of international seigniorage.