贸易开放、经济增长与碳排放的关联分析:基于新兴经济体的实证研究

Empirical Investigation of the Relationship between Trade Openness,Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions:Evidence form Eleven Emerging Economies

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论,分别设定经济发展与碳排放、贸易开放与碳排放之间的静态与动态面板模型,并通过固定效应模型、随机效应模型和系统GMM估计的方法对新兴11国1992~2013年的平衡面板数据按不同收入水平进行分组检验。研究结果显示,在新兴11国中,高收入水平国家的经济增长与贸易开放最终会降低碳排放量,而中等收入水平国家只有贸易开放最终将起到减排作用。其中,中高收入水平及以上的国家成为碳污染的天堂和转移排放的对象,较低环境约束下的贸易开放与不合理的能源消耗结构是碳排放的主要原因;而中低收入水平国家仍处于享受贸易开放带来的红利之中,其主要问题在于以重化工业为主的产业结构对碳排放量的加剧作用。技术进步则是新兴市场国家实现碳减排的重要方式。

Based on the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve( EKC),this paper investigates the relationship between economic growth,trade openness and carbon emissions by setting static and dynamic panel models. The empirical results show that economic growth and trade openness of the high-income countries in E11 will reduce carbon emissions in the future,while the middle-income countries can only depend on trade openness to have emission reduction effect eventually. Especially,the main reasons that caused carbon emissions in upper-middle-income countries are trade openness under few environment binding and unreasonable energy structure,which support the pollution heaven hypothesis. The lower-middle-income countries in E11 can still enjoy the benefits of trade liberalization,and the main problem in those countries that increased carbon emissions is irrational industrial structure.